Comparison of haymaking strategies for cow-calf systems in the Salado Region of Argentina using a simulation model. 3. Exploratory risk assessment

Risk and cost estimates, calculated using a weather-driven farm simulation model, were used to evaluate the impact of different haymaking strategies in dryland cow-calf systems such as those in the Salado region of Argentina. Based on a 100-ha farm, each strategy was simulated using twenty sequences of 50 years of random weather. A risk-efficiency methodology was used, using calf live weight sold and considering the economic value of the live weight produced per year minus the cost of haymaking, as a simple measure of profit. The analysis highlighted both production and risk advantages in using hay, especially when a flexible hay management approach was implemented, although some haymaking strategies performed worse than not using hay. When calf live weight sold was considered alone, the risk-efficient set included strategies with large proportions of the areas being harvested (0.42-1.05; paddocks could be cut more that once a year in some of the strategies) and high proportions of hay not being used. The amount of hay for maximizing risk efficiency for profit was noticeably lower than that for maximizing cattle production. When haymaking costs were included, the proportion of area harvested for risk-efficient profit ranged from 0.28 to 0.52, depending on the target stocking rate. © 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.